War with Iran, China towards electric trucks - Falling demand from the world's largest oil importer
Rising oil prices caused by the war with Iran are expected to accelerate the electrification of China's heavy-duty truck fleet this year, analysts and automakers say. That is expected to accelerate the decline in fuel demand from the world's largest oil importer.
Sales of electric heavy trucks have increased significantly over the last two years, thanks in part to government subsidies.
“The war has increased fuel prices in China, which will inevitably accelerate the replacement of traditional trucks,” said Chinese market analysts. Sales of electric heavy-duty trucks in China in 2026 increased by 27%. With a range of about 300 km, electric heavy-duty trucks are mainly used for short trips between industrial and transportation centers. Meanwhile, manufacturers such as Sany are selling trucks with a range of up to 600 km.
The widespread electrification of passenger cars and the rapid adoption of electric and liquefied natural gas trucks have reversed decades of growth in China's oil and gasoline use. Analysts expect oil consumption to fall by 4.3% this year. That's equivalent to a drop of about 40,000 barrels per day.
Lower costs are also fueling an export boom in Europe, the world's second-largest electric truck market, although it lags far behind China. By 2024, electric truck sales in China will total 160,000 units, while in Europe that year they were less than 25,000, according to the International Energy Agency.
But as early as March, Chinese manufacturers, including top-selling brand Sany, were planning to boost sales in Europe, promising prices up to a third lower than before. Sany has warned that it will replace diesel trucks and accelerate the trend by 2025. The company plans to grow the market for electric trucks and tractors by 50%, or 250,000 units, Sany deputy director Chen Dong said in April. He said that given rising oil prices, the chances of achieving this goal are increasing.
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