The EBRD gives its projections for Albania/ The economy is being maintained thanks to loans, tourism, and remittances.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has not changed the projections for Albania’s economic growth this year, so they remain at 3%. But according to the institution’s latest report on the economic outlook of the countries it covers, there was a low percentage in the projections for next year. The statement said that the projections for next year’s economic growth have been cut by 0.3 percent.

“The strong growth of lending to the private sector and the stability of remittances continues to support investments and household consumption. The tourism sector is headed for a record year, with foreign tourist arrivals and night-stays above pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022,” the report states.

Compared to the other Western Balkans countries, in Albania and Kosovo, it is expected that the crisis will have the smallest impact, as they are the two countries with the smallest reduction in projections. As for the rates of economic growth, Albania this year and the next one is projected to surpass Serbia, Kosovo, and Montenegro. This year, economic growth in our country is expected to be 0.7 percentage points above the average of the countries covered by the EBRD, while next year it is expected to be in line with the average, close to 3%. None of the Western Balkan countries is predicted to be in recession this year or next year.

One of the reasons that has had the greatest impact on the non-shortening of the projections for the Albanian economy, especially compared to some of the countries in the region, seems to be precisely the inflation rate. Which in our country is currently fixed at 8%, and despite the fact that it constitutes a record of more than two decades, it remains among the lowest in the region.

The predictions of international institutions for Albania and other countries are based on the national statistics that these countries themselves produce without questioning their quality. The rate of inflation in our country this year has raised quite a few questions.

The EBRD report analyses 36 countries, mainly former Soviet republics, or Yugoslav countries, and those countries that have a communist past. Among them we find Ukraine and Russia, two countries that are currently at war, and as a result of this war they have caused a general slowdown in the global economy. As for the economic projections for Ukraine, the report talks about a recession of close to -30% this year, as well as an economic growth of close to 8% next year. For Russia, meanwhile, projections speak of a decline in the economy of 5% this year and 3% next year.

Translated by: Xhenisa Xhangoli/ SCAN INTEL

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