China, restrictions on rare earth metal exports - Western industries worth $6.5 trillion could be at risk
The International Energy Agency warned that full implementation of China's restrictions on rare earth exports could jeopardize $6.5 trillion worth of production in industries that depend on them outside China.
China, the world's largest producer of rare earth metals, expanded export controls in October last year to cover additional materials and introduced new licensing requirements, but later agreed to delay implementation for a year.
Rare earth minerals are a group of 17 metals that are used in small quantities but are essential for products ranging from cars and aircraft to electronics and weapons systems. If the controls go into full effect, about $6.5 trillion worth of manufacturing in the automotive, high-tech, defense and energy sectors could be exposed to supply disruptions, the agency warned in its Global Critical Minerals Outlook report.
The United States and Europe would account for nearly half of the economic impact, the report added. “Our latest analysis shows that vast amounts of economic value depend on relatively small volumes of critical minerals, whose supply chains remain highly concentrated and therefore vulnerable,” said the agency’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol.
The agency also warned of the risks posed by China's planned controls on the export of graphite, a key material used in electric vehicle batteries. Full implementation of the graphite controls could put about $300 billion in manufacturing outside China at risk, the report said. China accounts for more than 90% of global processed graphite production.
Western governments have been trying to build alternative supply chains for critical minerals. The International Energy Agency says public funding commitments for new projects quadrupled between 2023 and 2025 to $65 billion. New rare earths refining projects in the US and Malaysia reduced China’s share of the global market to 85% last year, from 90% in 2023. If planned projects go ahead as planned, China’s share could fall to 70% by 2035.
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