The World Cup did not boost Mexico's economy - According to analysts, the impact was very localized
The World Cup filled stadiums with fans in Mexico but failed to lift a sluggish economy weighed down by weak investment and uncertainty over the upcoming review of the North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA).
Mexico hosted 13 of the tournament's 104 matches. However, it fell short of the ambitious official tourism targets aimed at boosting gross domestic product (GDP), which shrank in the first quarter.
Analysts said the tournament would provide only a short-term boost to an economy that the government expects to grow between 1.8% and 2.8% this year, compared with analysts' forecasts of 1.1%. The economic impact was largely localized. They cut their estimate for the World Cup's contribution to GDP to 0.4%-0.5%, from a previous forecast of 0.62%.
Ratings firm Banamex estimated the total economic impact at $2 billion, about 0.1% of GDP. Deloitte predicted the competition created 100,000 temporary jobs, 10% less than its previous estimate. Meanwhile, BBVA reported that its household consumption indicator fell 0.2% month-on-month in June, with spending on hotels falling 10.5% and restaurants down 4.9%, despite a 16.5% increase in entertainment.
The gains were uneven across the host cities of Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey. The Mexican Restaurant Association reported that half of its restaurants performed worse than in a typical week due to low hotel occupancy and local protests in the capital. Passenger traffic rose slightly in June in Guadalajara and Monterrey, but fell at Mexico City's main airport.
With companies holding back investment ahead of the trade pact review and the economy shrinking by 0.6% in the first quarter, the IMF has cut its forecast for Mexico's economic growth to 1.2%, from 1.6%.
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