Oil, "a race against time" for the Strait of Hormuz - Morgan Stanley predicts prices up to $150/barrel
The oil market is in a race against time as the factors that helped limit price increases after the Iran war may not hold if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until June. According to Morgan Stanley, this could lead to a new cycle of price increases.
Despite the loss of nearly 1 billion barrels of oil, futures contracts have not returned to their peak levels of 2022. Morgan Stanley analysts note that the market entered the crisis with inventories and investors are still waiting for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the increase in crude oil exports from the United States and a slowdown in imports from China protected the market from the shock caused by geopolitical instability.
Since late February, crude oil prices have risen sharply, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to a dual blockade by Iran and the US. However, long-term contracts have not exceeded the levels recorded after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Morgan Stanley estimates that the most likely scenario is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz before the US reduces exports and China stabilizes its imports. If the disruption continues, higher prices are considered inevitable, according to analysts.
The bank predicts that Brent crude oil will be $110 per barrel in the current quarter, $100 in the next three months and $90 between October and December. In the optimistic scenario, with a prolonged closure of the Strait, prices could reach $130 to $150 per barrel.
As analysts point out, "the increase in United States exports by 3.8 million barrels per day and the decrease in China's imports by 5.5 million barrels per day have protected the rest of the world from a shortage of 9.3 million barrels per day."
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