German industry faces stagnation - The conflict in Iran has added new risks
German industry is expected to stagnate at best in 2026, the DUI industry association said, warning that higher energy costs, supply chain risks and domestic structural weaknesses are adding to the pressure on Europe's largest economy.
The DUI lowered its outlook after a weak start to the year and said the conflict in Iran had added new risks, including more expensive energy, broader price pressures and disruptions to shipping and logistics.
“Since 2022, industrial production in Germany has fallen every year. For 2026, we no longer expect a recovery, but stagnation,” the association said. Germany’s manufacturing sector could shrink for a fifth consecutive year if shipping disruptions continue. Industrial production remains well below previous levels and capacity utilization is only just above 78%.
Germany's weakness was largely structural, due to high labor, tax, bureaucracy, and energy costs that had eroded the country's competitiveness.
The association urges the government to agree by the summer on a broad package of reforms to boost growth and investment, including tax relief, credible investment incentives and less bureaucracy.
DUI also called for faster and more digital public administration and said policymakers must go beyond short-term responses to crises.
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