Europe, facing a long and cold winter - The Continent, on alert from the decline in gas reserves and imports at minimal levels
Europe is approaching winter with energy supplies at extremely fragile levels, while conflicts in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine are putting pressure on global markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and heating oil, reducing reserves to dangerous levels.
Natural gas and heating oil are the main sources of heating for homes in Europe. According to official data, gas covers about 30% of household heating needs, while heating oil covers about 10%. After several years of energy shocks, Europe seems to be heading into another winter with these markets under strong pressure.
Europe's vulnerability to gas supply is, to a large extent, a consequence of the radical change in its energy structure after Russia's complete invasion of Ukraine in 2022. To replace the gas coming through Russian pipelines, Europe quickly turned to liquefied natural gas, becoming one of the world's largest importers of this fuel.
This shift improved Europe’s energy security, reducing its dependence on Russia, but it also complicated the region’s energy dynamics. Instead of relying on long-term supplies through pipelines, Europe now competes with Asia and other regions in the global liquefied natural gas market, where any disruption in supply could have immediate consequences around the world.
Europe is lagging behind the pace needed to replenish its natural gas reserves before winter. According to data from the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), underground gas storage facilities are currently about 55% full, the lowest level for this time of year since 2021. At the same time, imports of liquefied natural gas into Europe have slowed significantly since the outbreak of the war in Iran.
The European market is increasingly alarmed by a combination of low reserves, weak imports and a worsening supply outlook. European gas benchmark prices rose to above 60 euros per megawatt-hour last week, touching their highest level since early 2023, when the energy crisis was at its peak.
A mild winter on the continent could provide enough room to avoid a full-blown crisis. But a prolonged period of cold, which significantly increases heating demand, would show how little room for error there is in Europe's energy system.
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