"The world will consume less oil" - OPEC further lowers global demand forecast for 2026
OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 to 780,000 barrels per day, marking its third consecutive downward revision. The producer group continues to see a smaller impact on consumption since the start of the Iran war than other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency. OPEC said the global economy could perform better in the rest of the year and raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027.
The war closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil routes, for months, halting millions of barrels of Middle Eastern output. Production is starting to recover after a temporary peace deal between Iran and the United States, although renewed military attacks are reviving concerns about shipments.
"Global economic growth momentum in the first half of 2026 has remained broadly resilient," OPEC said. "Potential moderation in geopolitical tensions could provide some upside for global growth in the second half of 2026 if energy markets and trade flows stabilize further."
The current forecast lowered the expected growth in oil demand this year from 970,000 barrels per day previously. For 2027, OPEC expects oil demand to grow by 1.94 million barrels per day, 210,000 barrels per day more than the previous forecast.
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, had agreed to resume production increases from April, but the closure of Hormuz made it impossible to increase production to the agreed quota levels.
OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 36.28 million barrels per day in June, about 3 million barrels more than in May, the report said, citing secondary sources that OPEC uses to monitor its output, as Gulf members began to resume production halted by the Iran war.
The May figure includes the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1.
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