Markets assess oil supply recovery - Prices continue to fall after US-Iran peace deal reached
Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday as markets weighed prospects for a resumption of supply through the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of details from a preliminary deal to end the Iran war.
Brent crude futures fell 0.5% to $82.72 a barrel and U.S. crude fell 0.3% to $80.51 a barrel.
Some analysts expect a resumption of supply through the Strait soon, with other factors pushing down physical market prices. “It could take several weeks for tanker flow to return,” Morgan Stanley analysts said. “We see 50% of production by September and 80% by December, a little sooner than before,” they added.
China's crude oil imports fell 29% in May to their lowest level in eight years, extending a dramatic decline for the world's largest importer, with rising Saudi Arabian crude oil prices also expected to fall in July.
Early indications are that the US-Iran deal will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire for 60 days, allowing negotiators to address difficult issues, such as the future of Iran's nuclear program.
Analysts said the first phase of the deal, which includes the signing in Geneva of a 60-day ceasefire extension, was easy. But the second phase, which should be watched more closely by markets for its physical impact, is the phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships.
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