Global investors are more optimistic - Bank of America survey: 54% do not expect economic downturn
Global investor sentiment has climbed to its strongest level since February, with fund managers becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook, spending related to artificial intelligence and the prospect of a more dovish Federal Reserve, the latest Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey showed.
Cash distributions fell to a "very low" 3.6% from 4.1% in June, a level that prompted a reverse sell signal from Bank of America, while a record portion of respondents said they do not expect a global economic downturn.
The survey was conducted between July 2 and July 9, following the interim deal to end the US-Iran war. Investor sentiment rose to its highest level since February, reflecting optimism about economic growth, capital spending related to artificial intelligence and expectations for easier monetary policy.
A record 54% of respondents expect a “no recession” scenario for the global economy, while only 2% predict a sharp downturn. Long global semiconductor stocks remained the market’s busiest trade for the third consecutive month, mentioned by 82% of investors.
While some investors reduced technology positions in July, none reported a shortage in the sector. 61% of respondents say that high-volume investors may not reduce capital spending this year, compared to 28% who expect a reduction.
The risks of an artificial intelligence bubble rose to the top of the biggest risks facing markets, highlighted by 45% of respondents. 83% do not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the US midterm elections in November.
Investors lowered their forecast for the oil price at the end of 2026 to $71 per barrel from $86 in June.
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