"Significant oil surplus in 2027" - IEA forecasts after opening of the Strait of Hormuz
The oil market will move into a significant supply surplus in 2027, after recovering from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report.
The US has announced a temporary deal to end the war with Iran, which includes Iran reopening the strait and lifting the US naval blockade of Iran, potentially ending the largest oil supply disruption in history. According to the IEA, the war is estimated to have blocked more than 14 million barrels per day of oil production in the Middle East.
"If the deal holds, exports and production from the Gulf should see a gradual recovery - not least because Iranian exports could fully resume once the US blockade is lifted," said the agency, which advises industrialized countries.
The oil market will fall into a significant supply glut next year, the IEA said in its first review for 2027, as supply is forecast to rise by 8 million barrels per day while demand grows by just 2 million barrels per day.
However, political and operational constraints, including protracted demining and unresolved transit agreements, pose risks to the Middle East’s recovery prospects. Overall, the IEA forecasts oil supply to fall by 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026, as production losses in the Middle East outweigh increases in US output.
Russian crude and refined fuel exports were steady at around 7.4 million barrels per day in May despite continued Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, the IEA said, although the attacks forced Russia to prioritize fuel supplies to the domestic market and maximize crude oil exports.
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